LOCAL TV AD REVENUES
According to a revised forecast from BIA Advisory Services local TV advertising revenues are expected to be $16.2 billion in 2021, down 13% from $18.6 billion in 2020, but stronger than previously expected. BIA says local TV advertising is expected to rebound to $19.3 billion in 2022, a 19% gain. Local TV figures include $1.5 billion from digital platforms in 2021, up from $1.4 billion in 2020, and $1.7 billion in 2022. As more consumers take advantage of streaming services on their TV screens, OTT is growing 16% this year, faster than mobile. From its original forecast in November BIA has raised its forecast for total local ad spending in all media $142.4 billion, up 4.8 billion from its original forecast in November. This includes traditional media revenue of $77.7 billion and digital media revenue of $64.7 billion. (NextTV: 7/22/21)
VIEWING GROWS DESPITE NIELSEN DECLINES
The VAB, the TV network trade group, points to data from iSpot.tv showing a number of different viewership metrics grew in calendar-year 2020 over the year before. For example, the total monthly average household TV “ad ratings” were 6% higher to 3.97 million viewers per time period vs. 3.75 million the year before. Demographically it states 18-49 viewers grew 4.8% to 1.97 million and 25-54 viewers were up 4.9% to 2.0 million. The VAB says “work at home” audiences showed advertising ratings were higher due to higher TV news viewing and the return of major TV sports franchises. Nielsen’s halting of its in-home maintenance by field agents for its 40,000 national TV panel starting in 2020 led to “undercounting.” (MediaPost: 7/23/21)
BACK TO SCHOOL
According to Udayan Bose, founder and CEO of digital marketing firm NetElixir, the 2021 back-to-school season may include a late spike and “experience seekers,” and indicates some holiday shopping trends. While the NRF have predicted record-breaking back-to-school sales, Bose is more cautious in his outlook. There are three key buying behavioral shifts occurring over the next few weeks that will be a direct indicator, and heavily influence what to expect for the 2021 holiday season. Experience seekers or Gen Z and millennial shoppers are more likely to purchase products that align with their core values will be coming out in droves. Bose also states “in-store sales are likely to benefit more from the later spike than online sales, and online shopping behavior during the third quarter of 2021 is likely to be less predictable as more people start shopping in-stores.” (CSA: 7/27/21)
The latest visit from UBS to its Evidence Lab expects a healthy back-to-school season feeding into a strong Q4 to give a boost to stocks. For back-to-school, data shows one of the best-selling categories will be footwear, which bodes well for brands like Under Armour, Nike and Skechers. Another key trend it’s seeing is denim – which it thinks will help deliver big Q2 and Q3 beats for American Eagle Outfitters, and Abercrombie & Fitch. Willingness to spend is high as the season begins, with total spending per adult back-to-school shopper expected to rise 6% vs. 2019, to an all-time high. 86% of parents with school-age children are confident or very confident that classes will return entirely to in person, up 64% last month. (SeekingAlpha: 7/26/21)
CONNECTED TV SCALES UP
The CTV space is undoubtedly having a growth spurt, with Connected TV ad spend expected to hit $10.8 billion by the end of 2020 and balloon to $13 billion by 2021. However, the acceleration comes with growing pains and will be a bumpy road for many years to come. “There’s an enormous amount of fragmentation. There’s an exciting outlook on the next tech that’s going to come out in the years to come to simplify this to make it an even better platform for advertisers to reach audiences.” Industry leaders discussed the opportunities and challenges in the connected TV buying space and how to smooth the pavement. As the connected TV space scales, buyers have to navigate the fragmentation of ad inventory across various platforms, which can undermine frequency caps and other audience management tools that buyers use to plan their media spend. (AdWeek: 7/27/21)
EMILIA CLARKE’S “GOOD 4 U”
With a twist, Emilia Clarke recites lines from “good 4 u” on the Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon. Emilia Clarke is known for her accents and shows off her skills by quoting the hit song as someone from New York, California (Valley Girl), Germany, France, Russia, and the South. You can watch the full clip here.
